Major League Soccer Match Picks, Week 9

Four for ten last week, 34% on the year.

My picks for this week:

Winners: Montreal Impact, FC Dallas, Columbus Crew, Sporting KC, Chivas USA and the Houston Dynamo

Draws: Toronto FC/New York Red Bulls, New England/Philadelphia, Real Salt Lake/LA Galaxy

Major League Soccer Match Picks, Week 8, Wednesday Nighter

Last week I was 3 for 9, maintaining my 33% pick rate for the season. Dartboards beware!

Going to drop my Wednesday night pick now, with the rest of my match predictions coming later in the week.

The New York Red Bulls will manage a draw against Sporting KC at home.

Major League Soccer Match Picks, Week 7

Horrible week last week. I was only 1 for 7. 33% on the year.

Here's my picks this week:

Winners:

Montreal Impact
Philadelphia Union
Vancouver Whitecaps
DC United
FC Dallas
Chivas USA
Houston Dynamo

Draws:

Seattle Sounders vs New England Revolution
Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes

Major League Soccer Match Picks, Week 6

Winners this week:

Sporting KC
FC Dallas
Columbus Crew
San Jose Earthquakes

3 Draws this week:

Colorado v Real Salt Lake
Portland v Houston
Chicago v New York

Major League Soccer Match Predictions, Matchweek 11, Saturday and Sunday Matches

With Portland and Houston playing to a scoreless draw and DC United beating Colorado I am 1 for 2 so far this matchweek.

Here are my predictions for the Saturday and Sunday matches:

Saturday 5/19/12 Matches:

Vancouver will draw Seattle at home
Montreal will draw the New York Red Bulls at home
DC United will beat Toronto FC at home
New England will beat Houston at home
FC Dallas will draw Philadelphia at home
Colorado will draw Sporting Kansas City at home
San Jose will beat Columbus at home
Chivas USA will draw the LA Galaxy at home

Sunday 5/20/12 Match:

Portland will draw Chicago at home

By the way, MLSSoccer.com has a new fantasy pick 'em game-check it out!

http://games.mlssoccer.com/

Major League Soccer Match Predictions, Matchweek 11, Tuesday, Wednesday Matches

So far this year I am 14 for 30 in my match predictions, a success rate of 46.6%.

My predictions for the MLS midweek matches:

Tonight, 5/15/12:

Houston beats Portland at home

Wednesday 5/16/12:

DC United beats Colorado at home

Major League Soccer Match Predictions, Matchweek 10, Saturday and Sunday Matches

I was 2 for 3 on my Wednesday match predictions. Here are my match predictions for the balance of the week:

Saturday, May 12 Matches:

The Montreal Impact will beat the LA Galaxy at home
The Houston Dynamo will draw DC United at home
The Columbus Crew will beat FC Dallas at home
New England will draw Vancouver at home
Chicago will draw Sporting Kansas City at home
The Seattle Sounders will beat Real Salt Lake at home

Sunday, May 13 Matches:

Philadelphia will draw New York at home
The San Jose Earthquakes will beat Chivas USA at home

Major League Soccer Match Predictions, Matchweek 10, Wednesday 5/9/12 Matches

Three mid-week matches this week.

Wednesday 5/9/12:

The New York Red Bulls will beat the Houston Dynamo at home.
The Chicago Fire will beat Real Salt Lake at home.
The Seattle Sounders will win at FC Dallas.

Major League Soccer Match Predictions, Matchweek 9, Saturday and Sunday Matches, 5/5/12

I picked Seattle's victory over the Galaxy and San Jose's victory over DC United correctly, but got the other two matches played this week wrong.

Here are the balance of my picks for this week:

Saturday 5/5 Matches:

Sporting KC will beat Montreal at home

Columbus will draw at Portland

DC United will win at Toronto

Seattle will beat Philadelphia at home

San Jose will draw at Vancouver

New York will draw at the Galaxy

Real Salt Lake will beat New England at home

Sunday 5/6 Match:

FC Dallas will beat Colorado at home

Major League Soccer Match Predictions, Matchweek 9, 5/1/12

Last week I only picked winners. I was 5 for 7, not a bad start for my prediction season.

I'm going to pick all the results for this week, putting my rankings to the test (Note, I will pick the weekend matches that involve teams playing midweek after those matches are completed.):

Wednesday 5/2 Matches:
Colorado will draw at New England
Seattle will beat the Galaxy at home
San Jose will beat DC United at home

Friday 5/4 Match:
Chicago will draw at Chivas USA

Saturday 5/5 Matches:
Sporting KC will beat Montreal at home
Columbus will draw at Portland
DC United at Toronto
Philadelphia at Seattle
San Jose at Vancouver
New York at the Galaxy
New England at Real Salt Lake

Sunday 5/6 Match:
Colorado at FC Dallas

Major League Soccer Match Winner Predictions, Matchweek 8, 4/28/12

Time to pick a few winners based on this week's Major League Soccer Power Rankings.

Just winners. Note I also take into account the Major League soccer historical advantage to home teams in making these picks:

Montreal wins at home against Portland
New York wins at home against New England
San Jose wins at Philadelphia
Columbus wins at home against Vancouver
D.C. United wins at home against Houston
Real Salt Lake wins at home against Toronto
The LA Galaxy wins against FC Dallas at home

Moneyball? Meh...Movie Review - Moneyball (2011)

I love baseball. I am a statistics freak. I've been known to keep a scorecard at baseball games. I have a formula that I use to determine weekly Major League Soccer Power Rankings and predict Major League Soccer matches.

I monitor RottenTomatoes.com to see the critics' consensus on movies to determine if I want to see the movie in a theater. Rotten? Forget about it. Ripe? I might consider it, as long as the subject matter interests me.

So out comes a movie, Moneyball. A story about Oakland A's General Manager Billy Beane (played by Brad Pitt), who has to figure out how to form a team with a limited payroll to compete against the big money clubs in Major League Baseball. He hires an economics major as his assistant (played by Jonah Hill) who has the ability to analyze statistics to measure the value of baseball players, thus uncovering "undervalued" players to form a team.

This method of scouting goes against the cultural norms of baseball scouting, providing a great backdrop for the movie.

This movie was ready-made for me.

Baseball? Check.

Statistics? Check.

Great actors? Brad Pitt? Jonah Hill? Philip Seymour Hoffman (playing Manager Art Howe)? Check.

A 94% ripe rating on RottenTomatoes.com? Check!


This movie can't fail!

I was completely underwhelmed.

Don't get me wrong. The movie is OK. The premise is good.

However, I couldn't empathize with the Billy Beane (or Brad Pitt's portrayal of him) in the movie. Maybe it was his ego. The movie tries to show Billy Beane's vulnerabilities, but came up short.

Jonah Hill's character, Assistant General Manager Peter Brand, was somewhat funny. I just felt like I had seen it before, the stereotypical shy nerdy smart-type who is trying to make his way amongst the grizzled veterans in the sport. And how many times do I need to see Jonah Hill do the uncomfortable high five in a movie? Seen it before.

Moneyball misses the mark as it tries to be too many things. Is it a drama about the conflicts of work versus family, or an "us against them I'll be proven right" story, or a biopic on Billy Beane as the trailblazer in the application of sabermetrics to build a successful baseball team?

The movie seems to run too long. Heavy on dialog, as would be expected, but short on the interesting banter I would have expected in the interactions between the characters.

My expectations may have been too high. I can take responsibility for that. But for me Moneyball was, well, meh...

I'm 0 for 2 So Far This Week In Major League Soccer Predictions

Earlier in the week I picked DC United to beat Chivas USA and the Portland Timbers to beat the San Jose Earthquakes.

Both matches ended in draws, so I'm 0 for 2 so far this week. 13 for 36 on the year, a 36% success result.

After running my model, none of the Saturday matches show a definitive result, so I'm not going to pick any of them

Still looking at a Chicago Fire win over the New England Revolution on Sunday 9/25.

I've Got Some Explaining To Do...Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week 27, 9/19/11

I've spent some time on past Major League Soccer Power Rankings posts documenting my philosophy when compiling them each week.


I still like to tweak my formula, but since there are a few surprises (at first glance) in the top ten this week I thought I would post a little more detail/philosophy.


My overriding philosophy in my rankings is to rank the teams from top to bottom in Major League Soccer on who is playing best at that point in time based on a formula. I am not trying to predict how the season will end with these rankings. Theoretically, the top team in my rankings on any given week should be able to beat the other seventeen on a neutral field that given week, the second team should beat the sixteen below them, etc.


I don't purely go by this when I make my MLS match predictions, as I look at each teams' ranking score in my formula and their differential to determine whether the match can be predicted. So if the #1 team's score in my rankings has a very small differential with #2, I wouldn't necessarily pick the #1 team to win. I also take into account the predominant home field advantage that historically exists in the MLS to make my pick.

So what is my formula? I take season to date points per game (not goals, but points earned) as I feel teams should be rewarded for their long term performance in my rankings.  I combine that with points per game in a team's last five matches (a reflection of who is currently hot) to come up with a team's score. I weight season-long performance 60% in my formula and the last five matches' performance 40%. In the last five matches' average I give a higher weighting for away wins, and will punish a team for a home loss.

The LA Galaxy are #1

My Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week #27:

1) LA Galaxy (West)

2) Real Salt Lake (West)

3) Seattle Sounders FC (West)

4) Portland Timbers (West)

5) Toronto FC (East)

6) Chicago Fire (East)

7) D.C. United (East)

8) Houston Dynamo (East)

9) New York Red Bulls (East)

10) Sporting Kansas City (East)

11) Philadelphia Union (East)

12) Colorado Rapids (West)

13) FC Dallas (West)

14) Columbus Crew (East)

15) New England Revolution (East)

16) San Jose Earthquakes (West)

17) Vancouver Whitecaps (West)

18) Chivas USA (West)

At first glance, I'm thinking that readers are going to look at this week's rankings and are going to wonder why two teams with a slim to none chance at making the MLS Playoffs, the Chicago Fire and Toronto FC are ranked so high, and virtual locks for the playoffs, FC Dallas and the Columbus Crew are ranked so low.


The reason is current form (last five matches) and it's 40% weighting in my formula. Here are the teams ranked by current form this week:

1) Real Salt Lake (West)

2) LA Galaxy (West)

3) Toronto FC (East)

4) (3-way tie) Seattle Sounders FC (West)

Portland Timbers (West)

Chicago Fire (East)

7) D.C. United (East)

8) (2-way tie) Houston Dynamo (East)

New York Red Bulls (East)

10) (2-way tie) Sporting Kansas City (East)

New England Revolution (East)

12) (2-way tie) Philadelphia Union (East)

Colorado Rapids (West)

14) Vancouver Whitecaps (West)

15) (3-way tie) FC Dallas (West)

Columbus Crew (East)

San Jose Earthquakes (West)

18) Chivas USA (West)

Toronto FC (last 5, WLTWW) and the Chicago Fire (TWWLW) are playing very well right now and are ranked in the top six in MLS for their last five matches. FC Dallas (TLWLL) and the Columbus Crew (WLLTL) are currently playing very poorly and are ranked in the bottom four.

I have admittedly questioned the 40% weighting on current form, but if I'm going to use these rankings to predict match results, I feel I have to look at who's hot and take that into account.

So that's my explanation. Not perfect, but it entertains me.

Four for Four! Good Weekend For Me and My Major League Soccer Picks! 9/18/11

That's more like it! My strategy of only picking Major League Soccer matches that I thought were locks worked.

I picked four matches this weekend, and got them all correct. As a review I had the Chicago Fire, Seattle Sounders, Real Salt Lake and the LA Galaxy all winning, and they did! I am now 13 for 34, or 38% for the season.

Here are three picks for the coming week. I will wait to see the results of all the Wednesday, 9/21 matches before I look at the matches played by those teams on Saturday 9/24.

Locks for the week:

Wednesday 9/21:

DC United will beat Chivas USA

The Portland Timber will beat the San Jose Earthquakes

Sunday 9/25:

The Chicago Fire will beat the New England Revolution

Major League Soccer Picks For Week 27, 9/15/11

Last week was horrible for me. I only predicted two out of the ten Major League Soccer matches correctly, the home victory by the LA Galaxy over Colorado, and the draw between the Philadelphia Union and Portland Timbers. Combined with me incorrectly picking the Columbus Crew over the Houston Dynamo last night, I'm now nine for thirty, or 30%.

But I will keep trying.

I'm gonna change this week and only pick matches that I believe are locks. If it's not a definitive in my model, I'm not going to pick'em.

Here you go:

9/17 Matches:

The LA Galaxy will beat Vancouver

The Chicago Fire will beat Chivas USA

The Seattle Sounders will beat DC United

Real Salt Lake will beat Sporting KC

The Galaxy Will Be Big Winners Saturday!

Couldn't Go to the Match, Bummer...Columbus Crew 2, Houston Dynamo 2 9/14/11

I hate missing home Columbus Crew matches. I just couldn't make it tonight. And it was Buck-a-Brat night too.

So I was stuck watching the Crew on Direct Kick. Worse yet, I had to watch the Houston Dynamo broadcast and listen to Glenn Davis piss and moan about the two penalty kicks that were called against the Dynamo and ultimately converted by Andres Mendoza to earn the Crew a hard fought draw and put them back into first place in Major League Soccer's Eastern Division.

I predicted a Crew win, so a home draw was not only disappointing from that standpoint, but it also was disappointing as I fully expect the Crew to get 3 points out of every home match.

But maybe the Crew can get a lift out of this result. Emmanuel Ekpo was ejected with a straight red in the 11th minute, leaving the Crew with 10 men for the balance of the match. They were up 2-1 until the 86th minute when the Dynamo got the equalizer. That was certainly disappointing, but the Dynamo possessed the ball for more than 70% of the match, so you could say there was a certain inevitability to this match ending in a draw.

Of greater concern to the Crew is Chad Marshall being substituted at the half with a hip injury. That would be a devastating blow if it is anything serious.

But I'm going to maintain my optimism. It still looks good for the Crew to make the MLS Playoffs, but they may do it limping in.

The Columbus Crew Will Get a Much Needed Victory Against the Houston Dynamo Tonight! 9/14/11

Admittedly I am not real confident with this pick, but the Columbus Crew should win tonight against the Houston Dynamo based on it being a home game for them. That's pretty much the margin in this one. These are two evenly matched teams.
That's my pick, and I'm sticken' to it...
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Must Have Been Crazy! The Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution Play to a 4-4 Draw! 9/7/11

I don't get Galavision, so I had to monitor tonight's Major League Soccer match between the Philadelphia Union and the New England Revolution on MLSsoccer.com.

It must have been a great match. The result was a 4-4 draw, making my prediction of a Philadelphia Union victory wrong. Worse yet, I had it as one of my mortal locks! Oh well...0 for 1 this week, 7 for 20, or 35% for the year.

I have updated my model to reflect tonight's results. I predict that both the Philadelphia Union/Portland Timbers and New England Revolution/FC Dallas matches will end in draws. That completes my September 10th match predictions.

My Predictions For This Week's Major League Soccer Matches, 9/6/11

Here are my predictions for this week. I use my current Major League Soccer Power Rankings (or more specifically the formula that drives the rankings) and look at the differential between the two teams, taking into account the significant home bias that exists in Major League Soccer. Here's the article on the home bias:

http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/climbing-ladder-home-field-advantage

In order of confidence:

Mortal Locks:

9/7/11: The Philadelphia Union will get a home victory over the New England Revolution

9/10/11: The Columbus Crew will get a home victory over Toronto FC.

9/10/11: The San Jose Earthquakes and Chicago Fire will draw in San Jose.

I Can Sleep At Night With These Picks:

9/9/11: The Los Angeles Galaxy will win at home versus the Colorado Rapids

9/10/11: The Seattle Sounders will get a home victory over Real Salt Lake.

9/10/11: Chivas USA and DC United will draw at the Home Depot Center.

Do I Really Have to Pick These?:

9/10/11: Sporting KC and the Houston Dynamo will draw in Kansas City

9/10/11: The New York Red Bulls will get a home win over the Vancouver Whitecaps

I'm going to wait for the September 7th result between Philadelphia and New England before I pick the September 10th matches between Philadelphia/Portland and New England/FC Dallas.

Mortal Lock For a Win!

Mortal Lock For a Win!