Major League Soccer Match Picks, Week 9

Four for ten last week, 34% on the year.

My picks for this week:

Winners: Montreal Impact, FC Dallas, Columbus Crew, Sporting KC, Chivas USA and the Houston Dynamo

Draws: Toronto FC/New York Red Bulls, New England/Philadelphia, Real Salt Lake/LA Galaxy

Major League Soccer Match Picks, Week 6

Winners this week:

Sporting KC
FC Dallas
Columbus Crew
San Jose Earthquakes

3 Draws this week:

Colorado v Real Salt Lake
Portland v Houston
Chicago v New York

Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Match Week 17, July 1, 2012

I haven't posted these since week 12 (May 30th). I have still been tracking, but got a little lazy in posting them.

The San Jose Earthquakes are #1!

My Match Week 17 rankings:

1) San Jose Earthquakes (West)

2) D.C. United (East)

3) Chicago Fire (East)

4) Columbus Crew (East)

5) Vancouver Whitecaps (West)

6) New York Red Bulls (East)

7) Sporting Kansas City (East)

8) LA Galaxy (West)

9) Real Salt Lake (West)

10) Houston Dynamo (East)

11) Colorado Rapids (West)

12) Portland Timbers (West)

13) New England Revolution (East)

14) Seattle Sounders FC (West)

15) Chivas USA (West)

16) Montreal Impact (East)

17) Toronto FC (East)

18) Philadelphia Union (East)

19) FC Dallas (West)

Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week 12, 5/30/12

Since Major League Soccer is on an International break, this will be the last Power Ranking for a couple of weeks.

The New York Red Bulls maintain the top spot this week and the Columbus Crew and Seattle Sounders make some big moves, although in opposite directions.

Biggest risers? The Columbus Crew rise 10 spots, the Houston Dynamo rise 5.

Biggest drops? The Seattle Sounders drop 8 spots, the Portland Timbers drop 3.

My week 12 rankings:

1) New York Red Bulls (East)

2) Real Salt Lake (West)

3) D.C. United (East)

4) Columbus Crew (East)

5) Vancouver Whitecaps (West)

6) San Jose Earthquakes (West)

7) Colorado Rapids (West)

8) Houston Dynamo (East)

9) Sporting Kansas City (East)

10) Chicago Fire (East)

11) Seattle Sounders FC (West)

12) New England Revolution (East)

13) Portland Timbers (West)

14) Montreal Impact (East)

15) Chivas USA (West)

16) FC Dallas (West)

17) LA Galaxy (West)

18) Philadelphia Union (East)

19) Toronto FC (East)

Major League Soccer Match Predictions, Matchweek 10, Saturday and Sunday Matches

I was 2 for 3 on my Wednesday match predictions. Here are my match predictions for the balance of the week:

Saturday, May 12 Matches:

The Montreal Impact will beat the LA Galaxy at home
The Houston Dynamo will draw DC United at home
The Columbus Crew will beat FC Dallas at home
New England will draw Vancouver at home
Chicago will draw Sporting Kansas City at home
The Seattle Sounders will beat Real Salt Lake at home

Sunday, May 13 Matches:

Philadelphia will draw New York at home
The San Jose Earthquakes will beat Chivas USA at home

Major League Soccer Match Winner Predictions, Matchweek 8, 4/28/12

Time to pick a few winners based on this week's Major League Soccer Power Rankings.

Just winners. Note I also take into account the Major League soccer historical advantage to home teams in making these picks:

Montreal wins at home against Portland
New York wins at home against New England
San Jose wins at Philadelphia
Columbus wins at home against Vancouver
D.C. United wins at home against Houston
Real Salt Lake wins at home against Toronto
The LA Galaxy wins against FC Dallas at home

A Great Atmosphere, But the Crew Disappoint. LA Galaxy 1, Columbus Crew 0 9/24/11

It was great to see a sold out match at Columbus Crew Stadium. The Plaza in front of the stadium was packed. There was a huge line to get into the Crew store. The Nordecke was in full throat! And the weather was perfect.

The Nordecke Was Awesome Last Night!

I would like to think the crowd came to cheer on the Major League Soccer Eastern Conference leading Columbus Crew against the Western Conference leading LA Galaxy. But I do understand that the casual fans who came out wanted to see the Galaxy's Landon Donovan, David Beckham and Robbie Keane. As it turned out, David Beckham flew back to Los Angeles earlier this week as he was being rested, Robbie Keane had a minor injury that kept him out of the 18 for the match, and Landon Donovan didn't start.

But the fans were absolutely treated to a very exciting match that ended with the Galaxy scoring a second-half extra-time goal to give them a 1-0 victory. I hope the fans make it back to more Crew matches!

Crew Coach Robert Warzycha started the match in a 4-5-1 formation, which didn't make a lot of sense to me when the Galaxy's two best midfielders, Donovan and Beckham weren't in the match. Predictably the Crew couldn't produce quality chances in the first half, although they played very well defensively.

It was only when Coach Warzycha brought on Emilio Renteria in the second half, switching to a 4-4-2 formation that the Crew started getting great chances at goal. But ultimately they couldn't finish.

And when the Galaxy's Chad Barrett knocked in a deflected Landon Donovan shot in the 93rd minute (both were second half subs) the Crew were left with a home loss, and find themselves in 2nd place in the Eastern Conference.

Left defender Shaun Francis had a horrible match, giving the ball away on multiple occasions. The Crew also missed the injured Eddie Gaven as a stabilizing force in the midfield.

The Crew are in trouble and may not make the MLS Playoffs. They are currently playing worse than all of the other MLS Clubs based on their last five matches. They have four matches left, with only one of those at home. They will be lucky to get 4 points total out of those matches if they don't play better.

I'm an optimist when it comes to my favorite sports teams (the Columbus Crew, the Cincinnati Reds, Ohio State and Purdue football) but I'm not real confident we are going to see the Crew in the playoffs come the end of the MLS regular season.

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The Columbus Crew-Why Don't They Draw Anymore?

Too Many Empty Seats At Columbus Crew Stadium This Year

There is lots of discussion about the Columbus Crew's attendance woes this season. The Crew have performed well this season (1st place in Major League Soccer's Eastern Division as of this writing) but has the lowest average attendance per home game (11,359/game) in MLS. That average is 22% down from last season for the Crew, and 35% below the average attendance of all MLS teams this season.

Certainly there is no limit to the opinions on why. Just check this thread on BigSoccer.com if you want to see them.

Brian Straus, (follow him on twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/brianstraus) soccer writer for SportingNews.com wrote a very interesting article on the subject today. I think he captured the issues facing the Crew very succinctly.

Here's the link:

http://aol.sportingnews.com/soccer/story/2011-09-20/crews-struggle-brings-to-doubt-columbus-as-major-league-market

I think the Crew can overcome the issues, but it's going to take work on their part, and support from the Columbus area population.

Get behind the Crew! Dare to be Massive! : http://www.thecrew.com/news/2011/09/dare-be-massive-initative-launched

I've Got Some Explaining To Do...Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week 27, 9/19/11

I've spent some time on past Major League Soccer Power Rankings posts documenting my philosophy when compiling them each week.


I still like to tweak my formula, but since there are a few surprises (at first glance) in the top ten this week I thought I would post a little more detail/philosophy.


My overriding philosophy in my rankings is to rank the teams from top to bottom in Major League Soccer on who is playing best at that point in time based on a formula. I am not trying to predict how the season will end with these rankings. Theoretically, the top team in my rankings on any given week should be able to beat the other seventeen on a neutral field that given week, the second team should beat the sixteen below them, etc.


I don't purely go by this when I make my MLS match predictions, as I look at each teams' ranking score in my formula and their differential to determine whether the match can be predicted. So if the #1 team's score in my rankings has a very small differential with #2, I wouldn't necessarily pick the #1 team to win. I also take into account the predominant home field advantage that historically exists in the MLS to make my pick.

So what is my formula? I take season to date points per game (not goals, but points earned) as I feel teams should be rewarded for their long term performance in my rankings.  I combine that with points per game in a team's last five matches (a reflection of who is currently hot) to come up with a team's score. I weight season-long performance 60% in my formula and the last five matches' performance 40%. In the last five matches' average I give a higher weighting for away wins, and will punish a team for a home loss.

The LA Galaxy are #1

My Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week #27:

1) LA Galaxy (West)

2) Real Salt Lake (West)

3) Seattle Sounders FC (West)

4) Portland Timbers (West)

5) Toronto FC (East)

6) Chicago Fire (East)

7) D.C. United (East)

8) Houston Dynamo (East)

9) New York Red Bulls (East)

10) Sporting Kansas City (East)

11) Philadelphia Union (East)

12) Colorado Rapids (West)

13) FC Dallas (West)

14) Columbus Crew (East)

15) New England Revolution (East)

16) San Jose Earthquakes (West)

17) Vancouver Whitecaps (West)

18) Chivas USA (West)

At first glance, I'm thinking that readers are going to look at this week's rankings and are going to wonder why two teams with a slim to none chance at making the MLS Playoffs, the Chicago Fire and Toronto FC are ranked so high, and virtual locks for the playoffs, FC Dallas and the Columbus Crew are ranked so low.


The reason is current form (last five matches) and it's 40% weighting in my formula. Here are the teams ranked by current form this week:

1) Real Salt Lake (West)

2) LA Galaxy (West)

3) Toronto FC (East)

4) (3-way tie) Seattle Sounders FC (West)

Portland Timbers (West)

Chicago Fire (East)

7) D.C. United (East)

8) (2-way tie) Houston Dynamo (East)

New York Red Bulls (East)

10) (2-way tie) Sporting Kansas City (East)

New England Revolution (East)

12) (2-way tie) Philadelphia Union (East)

Colorado Rapids (West)

14) Vancouver Whitecaps (West)

15) (3-way tie) FC Dallas (West)

Columbus Crew (East)

San Jose Earthquakes (West)

18) Chivas USA (West)

Toronto FC (last 5, WLTWW) and the Chicago Fire (TWWLW) are playing very well right now and are ranked in the top six in MLS for their last five matches. FC Dallas (TLWLL) and the Columbus Crew (WLLTL) are currently playing very poorly and are ranked in the bottom four.

I have admittedly questioned the 40% weighting on current form, but if I'm going to use these rankings to predict match results, I feel I have to look at who's hot and take that into account.

So that's my explanation. Not perfect, but it entertains me.

Couldn't Go to the Match, Bummer...Columbus Crew 2, Houston Dynamo 2 9/14/11

I hate missing home Columbus Crew matches. I just couldn't make it tonight. And it was Buck-a-Brat night too.

So I was stuck watching the Crew on Direct Kick. Worse yet, I had to watch the Houston Dynamo broadcast and listen to Glenn Davis piss and moan about the two penalty kicks that were called against the Dynamo and ultimately converted by Andres Mendoza to earn the Crew a hard fought draw and put them back into first place in Major League Soccer's Eastern Division.

I predicted a Crew win, so a home draw was not only disappointing from that standpoint, but it also was disappointing as I fully expect the Crew to get 3 points out of every home match.

But maybe the Crew can get a lift out of this result. Emmanuel Ekpo was ejected with a straight red in the 11th minute, leaving the Crew with 10 men for the balance of the match. They were up 2-1 until the 86th minute when the Dynamo got the equalizer. That was certainly disappointing, but the Dynamo possessed the ball for more than 70% of the match, so you could say there was a certain inevitability to this match ending in a draw.

Of greater concern to the Crew is Chad Marshall being substituted at the half with a hip injury. That would be a devastating blow if it is anything serious.

But I'm going to maintain my optimism. It still looks good for the Crew to make the MLS Playoffs, but they may do it limping in.

The Columbus Crew Will Get a Much Needed Victory Against the Houston Dynamo Tonight! 9/14/11

Admittedly I am not real confident with this pick, but the Columbus Crew should win tonight against the Houston Dynamo based on it being a home game for them. That's pretty much the margin in this one. These are two evenly matched teams.
That's my pick, and I'm sticken' to it...
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Breathe...Toronto FC 4, Columbus Crew 2, 9/10/11

Final score, Toronto FC 4, the Columbus Crew 2. At COLUMBUS CREW STADIUM!

Breathe, deep breaths...

Tell yourself everything is going to be OK with the Columbus Crew.

Tell yourself that giving up 10 goals in their last two matches is nothing to be concerned about.

Tell yourself that seeing William Hesmer play his worst game...ever...is nothing to be concerned about.

Tell yourself that the starting back four of Sebastian Miranda, Chad Marshall, Julius James and Josh Gardner will communicate better in their next match.

Trillium Cup Goes to Toronto FC (Getty Images)

Tell yourself that the Crew midfield will not fail to connect on their passes like they did last night.

Tell yourself that losing to Toronto FC...FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER is only a blip, the Crew will recover.

Tell yourself we will see Eddie Gaven return to the line-up.

Tell yourself that the Crew will get things together in time for their Wednesday night home match against the Houston Dynamo.

Tell yourself the Crew will still be in playoff position after their next five matches, where they play four other teams in Major League Soccer's Eastern Conference who are in playoff position (the Houston Dynamo, Philadelphia Union, Sporting Kansas City and DC United) and the best team in all of Major League Soccer, the Los Angeles Galaxy.

Breath...

My Predictions For This Week's Major League Soccer Matches, 9/6/11

Here are my predictions for this week. I use my current Major League Soccer Power Rankings (or more specifically the formula that drives the rankings) and look at the differential between the two teams, taking into account the significant home bias that exists in Major League Soccer. Here's the article on the home bias:

http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/climbing-ladder-home-field-advantage

In order of confidence:

Mortal Locks:

9/7/11: The Philadelphia Union will get a home victory over the New England Revolution

9/10/11: The Columbus Crew will get a home victory over Toronto FC.

9/10/11: The San Jose Earthquakes and Chicago Fire will draw in San Jose.

I Can Sleep At Night With These Picks:

9/9/11: The Los Angeles Galaxy will win at home versus the Colorado Rapids

9/10/11: The Seattle Sounders will get a home victory over Real Salt Lake.

9/10/11: Chivas USA and DC United will draw at the Home Depot Center.

Do I Really Have to Pick These?:

9/10/11: Sporting KC and the Houston Dynamo will draw in Kansas City

9/10/11: The New York Red Bulls will get a home win over the Vancouver Whitecaps

I'm going to wait for the September 7th result between Philadelphia and New England before I pick the September 10th matches between Philadelphia/Portland and New England/FC Dallas.

Mortal Lock For a Win!

Mortal Lock For a Win!

Predicted The Sporting KC/LA Galaxy Draw Correctly...Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week 25, 9/5/11

I was a perfect 2 for 2 on my predictions for this weekend's Major League Soccer Matches, getting both the Real Salt Lake victory and the Sporting KC/LA Galaxy draw correct. I am now 7 for 19 on the year, a 37% accuracy rating.

The LA Galaxy Are #1 Again!

There were just a couple of changes to my Major League Soccer Power Rankings this week with only two matches played.

Real Salt Lake's victory over Philadelphia pushed them up two spots in this week's ranking to #4 overall, while Sporting Kansas City's home draw this evening against the LA Galaxy dropped them two spots to #11 in this week's rankings.

My week 25 Major League Soccer Power Rankings:

1) LA Galaxy (West)

2) Seattle Sounders FC (West)

3) Colorado Rapids (West)

4) Real Salt Lake (West)

5) Columbus Crew (East)

6) FC Dallas (West)

7) D.C. United (East)

8) Houston Dynamo (East)

9) Portland Timbers (West)

10) Chicago Fire (East)

11) Sporting Kansas City (East)

12) Chivas USA (West)

13) Philadelphia Union (East)

14) Toronto FC (East)

15) New York Red Bulls (East)

16) Vancouver Whitecaps (West)

17) New England Revolution (East)

18) San Jose Earthquakes (West)

My Predictions For This Weekend's Major League Soccer Matches, 9/2/11

I had a horrible week last week with my predictions. Out of eight matches played I only got one prediction correct, the Seattle Sounders win over the Columbus Crew.

I am now 5 for 17 for the year, a 29% accuracy rating.

Undaunted, I will forge ahead...

There are only two Major League Soccer matches this weekend. What will the results be?

In the Saturday, September 3rd match, I predict a Real Salt Lake Victory over the Philadelphia Union.

And on Labor Day, Monday, September 5th, I predict a draw between Sporting Kansas City and the LA Galaxy!

Real Salt Lake! A Big Winner This Weekend!

Your #1, The LA Galaxy! Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week 24, 8/31/2011

#1 Again, The LA Galaxy!

Quick post this week...

My week 24 Major League Soccer Power Rankings:

1) LA Galaxy (West)

2) Seattle Sounders FC (West)

3) Colorado Rapids (West)

4) Columbus Crew (East)

5) FC Dallas (West)

6) Real Salt Lake (West)

7) D.C. United (East)

8) Houston Dynamo (East)

9) Sporting Kansas City (East)

10) Portland Timbers (West)

11) Chicago Fire (East)

12) Chivas USA (West)

13) Philadelphia Union (East)

14) Toronto FC (East)

15) New York Red Bulls (East)

16) Vancouver Whitecaps (West)

17) New England Revolution (East)

18) San Jose Earthquakes (West)

The LA Galaxy Will Not Relent! Predictions From This Weekend and My Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week 23, 8/22/11

Another week, another week on top of the Rankings...or so says the LA Galaxy.

But first, a look at my Major League Soccer match predictions from this past weekend.

I picked the nine matches that were played this past Saturday and Sunday based on my rankings system, and taking into account the home field advantage so prevalent in Major League Soccer.

My results?

I correctly picked the result in four of the nine matches played. (The New England/New York draw, and the wins by Columbus, Portland and Los Angeles.) My prediction rate is a whopping 44%. I'm going to stick with the system next week.

The LA Galaxy Are On Top Again!

Some notes regarding this week's Rankings:

- Biggest jumps up? Chicago climbed 6 spots, Sporting KC climbed 5.

- Biggest decline? FC Dallas dropped 5 spots.

- Best current form? The LA Galaxy, Columbus and Colorado.

- Poorest current form? San Jose.

My week 23 Major League Soccer Rankings:

1) LA Galaxy (West)

2) Columbus Crew (East)

3) Seattle Sounders FC (West)

4) Colorado Rapids (West)

5) Houston Dynamo (East)

6) Sporting Kansas City (East)

7) D.C. United (East)

8) Chivas USA (West)

9) FC Dallas (West)

10) Portland Timbers (West)

11) Real Salt Lake (West)

12) Chicago Fire (East)

13) Philadelphia Union (East)

14) New York Red Bulls (East)

15) Toronto FC (East)

16) New England Revolution (East)

17) Vancouver Whitecaps (West)

18) San Jose Earthquakes (West)

Robbie Rogers-Man of the Match! Columbus Crew 2, Philadelphia Union 1, 8/20/11

I have had a love/hate fan relationship with the Columbus Crew's Robbie Rogers. At times I have been completely frustrated with his play, expecting more of an effort, better finishing, better final passes.

But after Robbie's performance in the Crew's 2-1 victory over the Philadelphia Union last night, I can now declare myself a Robbie Rogers fan.

Robbie assisted on the Crew's first goal with a nice cross into Emilio Renteria. Later in the match Rogers forced a handball in the box by Philly defender Sheanon Williams that was converted for a goal by Andres Mendoza.

It was obvious in the first half that the Union were not going to let the ball get to Rogers playing left midfield for the Crew. They overloaded their midfield on his side of the field, which allowed the Crew to work the ball up the right side. Early in the match, The Crew did have one very good opportunity in the from the right, a Justin Meram cross that Rogers almost converted for a goal.

Once the Crew figured out how to get Rogers the ball with space on the left, they became very dangerous. He had one shot he fired high, and then later in the first half made the cross that resulted in the Crew's first goal of the night.

Robbie Rogers is showing that he is one of the best midfielders in MLS and is playing up to the potential we all new he had. He's also pretty interesting on twitter. @robbierogers

The Crew now have a 5 point lead over the Houston Dynamo for first place in the MLS Eastern Conference.

This team gets better and better as the season continues. Michael Arace posted a great commentary this morning on the Columbus Dispatch's website regarding the Crew and their success this year. I love the last line, "Open your window and sniff. Is that a trace of Massive in the air?"

Check it out:
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/sports/2011/08/21/big-names-in-new-york-la-but-crews-in-first.html

Major League Soccer Match Predictions, 8/20/11 and 8/21/11 Matches

This week I decided to put my Major League Soccer Power Rankings to the test and try to predict the outcomes of this weekend's matches.

Here you go:

The New England Revolution and New York Red Bulls will finish in a draw.

The Columbus Crew will defeat The Philadelphia Union.

The Houston Dynamo and Real Salt Lake will finish in a draw.

FC Dallas and The Seattle Sounders will finish in a draw.

The Colorado Rapids will defeat Chivas USA.

The Portland Timbers will defeat The Vancouver Whitecaps.

The Los Angeles Galaxy will defeat The San Jose Earthquakes.

The Chicago Fire and Toronto FC will finish in a draw.

Sporting KC and DC United will finish in a draw.

What do you think?

The The LA Galaxy Maintain the Top Spot! Major League Soccer Power Rankings Week 22, 8/15/11

The LA Galaxy Maintain the Top Spot!

My Major League Soccer Rankings are pretty much for my own entertainment. I like messing around with numbers, and am a big fan of the MLS, so why not combine the two.

I have been publishing my rankings since matchweek 5. My intent with the rankings is to judge who are the best teams top to bottom at this point in the season. My intent is not to predict how the season will end.

I have been trying to figure out a way to look at how accurate my rankings are. Haven't really figured out a way, but I think the best way would be to try to look at the rankings for the current week and how those rankings predict the results on the field. More to come on that.

I have made a minor adjustment to my formula this week. Specifically, the way I was calculating the rankings prior did not take into account the number of matches played. Theoretically a team who had played less matches could be hurt in my formula, so now I have made the proper adjustments to take number of games played out as a factor.

Some quick notes for this week:

- Biggest jump up? The Houston Dynamo jumped up 3 spots.

- Biggest decline? Real Salt Lake dropped 4 spots.

- Best current form? Colorado, The LA Galaxy and Seattle.

- Poorest current form? San Jose and Chicago.

My week 22 Major League Soccer Rankings:

1) LA Galaxy (West)

2) Colorado Rapids (West)

3) Seattle Sounders FC (West)

4) FC Dallas (West)

5) Columbus Crew (East)

6) Chivas USA (West)

7) D.C. United (East)

8) Houston Dynamo (East)

9) Real Salt Lake (West)

10) Philadelphia Union (East)

11) Sporting Kansas City (East)

12) Portland Timbers (West)

13) New York Red Bulls (East)

14) New England Revolution (East)

15) Toronto FC (East)

16) Vancouver Whitecaps (West)

17) San Jose Earthquakes (West)

18) Chicago Fire (East)