Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week 9

FC Dallas and the Montreal Impact maintain the #1 and #2 spots for the 3rd week in a row and the Portland Timbers move into the top 5 for the first time all year. The New England Revolution and Seattle Sounders move out of the bottom 5, replaced by the Chicago Fire and San Jose Earthquakes.

Biggest moves up this week: New England Revolution, Portland Timbers, Columbus Crew

Biggest drops: Philadelphia Union, Sporting Kansas City, San Jose Earthquakes

This week's rankings (+- vs last week):

1) FC Dallas (West)

2) Montreal Impact (East)

3) LA Galaxy (West) +2

4) Portland Timbers (West) +3

5) Houston Dynamo (East) -1

6) Sporting Kansas City (East) -3

7) New York Red Bulls (East) +1

8) Columbus Crew (East) +3

9) Chivas USA (West)

10) Philadelphia Union (East) -4

11) Colorado Rapids (West) +1

12) Real Salt Lake (West) -2

13) New England Revolution (East) +5

14) Seattle Sounders FC (West) +1

15) Chicago Fire (East) -2

16) Vancouver Whitecaps (West) +1

17) San Jose Earthquakes (West) -3

18) Toronto FC (East) -2

19) D.C. United (East)

I'm 0 for 2 So Far This Week In Major League Soccer Predictions

Earlier in the week I picked DC United to beat Chivas USA and the Portland Timbers to beat the San Jose Earthquakes.

Both matches ended in draws, so I'm 0 for 2 so far this week. 13 for 36 on the year, a 36% success result.

After running my model, none of the Saturday matches show a definitive result, so I'm not going to pick any of them

Still looking at a Chicago Fire win over the New England Revolution on Sunday 9/25.

I've Got Some Explaining To Do...Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week 27, 9/19/11

I've spent some time on past Major League Soccer Power Rankings posts documenting my philosophy when compiling them each week.


I still like to tweak my formula, but since there are a few surprises (at first glance) in the top ten this week I thought I would post a little more detail/philosophy.


My overriding philosophy in my rankings is to rank the teams from top to bottom in Major League Soccer on who is playing best at that point in time based on a formula. I am not trying to predict how the season will end with these rankings. Theoretically, the top team in my rankings on any given week should be able to beat the other seventeen on a neutral field that given week, the second team should beat the sixteen below them, etc.


I don't purely go by this when I make my MLS match predictions, as I look at each teams' ranking score in my formula and their differential to determine whether the match can be predicted. So if the #1 team's score in my rankings has a very small differential with #2, I wouldn't necessarily pick the #1 team to win. I also take into account the predominant home field advantage that historically exists in the MLS to make my pick.

So what is my formula? I take season to date points per game (not goals, but points earned) as I feel teams should be rewarded for their long term performance in my rankings.  I combine that with points per game in a team's last five matches (a reflection of who is currently hot) to come up with a team's score. I weight season-long performance 60% in my formula and the last five matches' performance 40%. In the last five matches' average I give a higher weighting for away wins, and will punish a team for a home loss.

The LA Galaxy are #1

My Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week #27:

1) LA Galaxy (West)

2) Real Salt Lake (West)

3) Seattle Sounders FC (West)

4) Portland Timbers (West)

5) Toronto FC (East)

6) Chicago Fire (East)

7) D.C. United (East)

8) Houston Dynamo (East)

9) New York Red Bulls (East)

10) Sporting Kansas City (East)

11) Philadelphia Union (East)

12) Colorado Rapids (West)

13) FC Dallas (West)

14) Columbus Crew (East)

15) New England Revolution (East)

16) San Jose Earthquakes (West)

17) Vancouver Whitecaps (West)

18) Chivas USA (West)

At first glance, I'm thinking that readers are going to look at this week's rankings and are going to wonder why two teams with a slim to none chance at making the MLS Playoffs, the Chicago Fire and Toronto FC are ranked so high, and virtual locks for the playoffs, FC Dallas and the Columbus Crew are ranked so low.


The reason is current form (last five matches) and it's 40% weighting in my formula. Here are the teams ranked by current form this week:

1) Real Salt Lake (West)

2) LA Galaxy (West)

3) Toronto FC (East)

4) (3-way tie) Seattle Sounders FC (West)

Portland Timbers (West)

Chicago Fire (East)

7) D.C. United (East)

8) (2-way tie) Houston Dynamo (East)

New York Red Bulls (East)

10) (2-way tie) Sporting Kansas City (East)

New England Revolution (East)

12) (2-way tie) Philadelphia Union (East)

Colorado Rapids (West)

14) Vancouver Whitecaps (West)

15) (3-way tie) FC Dallas (West)

Columbus Crew (East)

San Jose Earthquakes (West)

18) Chivas USA (West)

Toronto FC (last 5, WLTWW) and the Chicago Fire (TWWLW) are playing very well right now and are ranked in the top six in MLS for their last five matches. FC Dallas (TLWLL) and the Columbus Crew (WLLTL) are currently playing very poorly and are ranked in the bottom four.

I have admittedly questioned the 40% weighting on current form, but if I'm going to use these rankings to predict match results, I feel I have to look at who's hot and take that into account.

So that's my explanation. Not perfect, but it entertains me.

Four for Four! Good Weekend For Me and My Major League Soccer Picks! 9/18/11

That's more like it! My strategy of only picking Major League Soccer matches that I thought were locks worked.

I picked four matches this weekend, and got them all correct. As a review I had the Chicago Fire, Seattle Sounders, Real Salt Lake and the LA Galaxy all winning, and they did! I am now 13 for 34, or 38% for the season.

Here are three picks for the coming week. I will wait to see the results of all the Wednesday, 9/21 matches before I look at the matches played by those teams on Saturday 9/24.

Locks for the week:

Wednesday 9/21:

DC United will beat Chivas USA

The Portland Timber will beat the San Jose Earthquakes

Sunday 9/25:

The Chicago Fire will beat the New England Revolution

Must Have Been Crazy! The Philadelphia Union and New England Revolution Play to a 4-4 Draw! 9/7/11

I don't get Galavision, so I had to monitor tonight's Major League Soccer match between the Philadelphia Union and the New England Revolution on MLSsoccer.com.

It must have been a great match. The result was a 4-4 draw, making my prediction of a Philadelphia Union victory wrong. Worse yet, I had it as one of my mortal locks! Oh well...0 for 1 this week, 7 for 20, or 35% for the year.

I have updated my model to reflect tonight's results. I predict that both the Philadelphia Union/Portland Timbers and New England Revolution/FC Dallas matches will end in draws. That completes my September 10th match predictions.

0 for 1 So Far, Major League Soccer Match Predictions

With the Portland Timbers beating Chivas USA last night 1-0, I'm 0 for 1 on my predictions so far this week, dropping my overall percentage to 40%.

Here are my predictions for this weekend's matches:

Seattle beats Columbus.

Vancouver and Houston draw.

Toronto beats San Jose.

DC United beats Portland.

Sporting KC beats Dallas.

Chicago and Colorado Draw.

Chivas USA beats Real Salt Lake.

Major League Soccer Match Prediction, Portland Timbers Versus Chivas USA, 8/24/11

There is one mid-week Major League Soccer match this week. Chivas USA travels to Jeld-Wen Field to take on the Portland Timbers.

Based on this week's MLS Power Rankings I predict...wait for it...a draw!

Underwhelming-I know.

Major League Soccer Match Predictions, 8/20/11 and 8/21/11 Matches

This week I decided to put my Major League Soccer Power Rankings to the test and try to predict the outcomes of this weekend's matches.

Here you go:

The New England Revolution and New York Red Bulls will finish in a draw.

The Columbus Crew will defeat The Philadelphia Union.

The Houston Dynamo and Real Salt Lake will finish in a draw.

FC Dallas and The Seattle Sounders will finish in a draw.

The Colorado Rapids will defeat Chivas USA.

The Portland Timbers will defeat The Vancouver Whitecaps.

The Los Angeles Galaxy will defeat The San Jose Earthquakes.

The Chicago Fire and Toronto FC will finish in a draw.

Sporting KC and DC United will finish in a draw.

What do you think?

My Man Crush for Emilio Renteria! Crew win 1-0! 7/23/11

It's the 24th of July and we find the Columbus Crew tied with the Philadelphia Union on points for first place in the Major League Soccer Eastern Conference. How about that!

Crew Goal Scorer Eddie Gaven and Emilio Renteria!

Another Budweiser $1 draft night at Columbus Crew Stadium last night drew 11,246 people to the match, which was pretty boring and uneventful until the 66th minute when Emilio Renteria entered the match as a sub for an ineffective Jeff Cunningham.

Maybe it was the $1 drafts, but immediately after Renteria entered the match, the energy in the stadium increased 10-fold, and the Crew, feeling the love, began to play with a sense of urgency that ultimately lead to a goal by Eddie Gaven and a 1-0 victory over the Portland Timbers.

It's very obvious that with Emilio Renteria on the field, the Crew are a different team. He is a handful for defenses to deal with, and when he is on the field, good things just seem to happen! I have to admit I have a man crush for Emilio!

The Crew's defense have only allowed one goal in their last four matches. And quite frankly the goal that the LA Galaxy scored last week would have been saved by William Hesmer last week if the shot hadn't been deflected by Eric Gehrig.

Andy Gruenebaum got the starting nod at keeper last night after it was determined that William Hesmer's quad was too hurt to make a go of it. Between him and the Crew's back-line of Sebastian Miranda, Chad Marshall (who in my opinion is the biggest MLS All-Star game snub this year), Julius James and Josh Gardner the Timbers could not reach the back of the net.

I feel very optimistic about the Crew right now. With two legitimate starters missing from last night's line-up due to injury (Andres Mendoza and Rich Balchan) the Crew still found a way to win. And this Crew team knows how to play defense, which should serve them well going into the final third of the MLS season.

The Crew hit a pretty rough part of their schedule over the next two weeks. First, a Tuesday night friendly versus Newcastle United of the English Premier League, and then two tough road matches at Real Salt Lake and at the Colorado Rapids. Getting 2 points minimum out of the matches at Rio Tinto and Dick's Sporting Goods Park would be a great result.

Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week 11, 5/31/11

A day late due to the Memorial Day Holiday.

The Los Angeles Galaxy Retain the Top Spot For the 2nd Week In a Row!

The Los Angeles Galaxy and FC Dallas continue on their great runs of form, while big away wins help the Philadelphia Union and D.C. United make big jumps in this weeks rankings.

I heavily weight away wins in my rankings, and correspondingly home losses. With the exception of the top two teams (Galaxy and FC Dallas) and the bottom three (Chicago, Vancouver, Sporting KC) five teams getting away wins shook the rankings up this week.

My Week 11 Major League Soccer Power Rankings (wins-losses-draws) UP or DOWN from last week:

1)   LA Galaxy, Western Conference (8-2-5) 29 points

Two wins this week including one at New England solidifies the Galaxy as the top team in the MLS.

2)   FC Dallas, Western Conference (6-3-4) 22 points

A midweek victory at Seattle and a draw at rival Houston make FC Dallas the second hottest team in the MLS behind the Galaxy.

3)   Philadelphia Union, Eastern Conference (6-3-2) 20 points UP

The Union jumps six spots after trouncing Toronto FC in Toronto.

4)   Seattle Sounders FC, Western Conference (5-4-5) 20 points

Seattle makes up for a midweek home loss to Dallas by beating Real Salt Lake at Rio Tinto, ending Real Salt Lake's 29 game home unbeaten streak.

5)   Portland Timbers, Western Conference (5-4-2) 17 points DOWN

D.C. United gets a win at Jeld-Wen, first visitor to beat the Timbers there this year.

6)   D.C. United, Eastern Conference (4-4-3) 15 points UP
A win at Jeld-Wen gives D.C. United a four game unbeaten streak.

7)   San Jose Earthquakes, Western Conference (3-4-4) 13 points UP

Also on a four game unbeaten streak.

8)   Colorado Rapids, Western Conference (4-3-6) 18 points DOWN

On a seven game unbeaten streak, the last five being draws.

9)   Chivas USA, Western Conference (3-4-4) 13 points DOWN

10)  Real Salt Lake, Western Conference (5-2-2) 17 points DOWN
A home loss?!?! That aside, Real Salt Lake has looked very pedestrian in their last five matches.

11)  Columbus Crew, Eastern Conference (3-3-5) 14 points UP

12)   New York Red Bulls, Eastern Conference (4-2-6) 18 points DOWN

On a current run of poor form. When was the last time the Red Bulls won a match? (Hint: it wasn't in May.)

13)  Houston Dynamo, Eastern Conference (3-4-6) 15 points UP

14)  Toronto FC, Eastern Conference (2-5-6) 12 points DOWN

6-2? At home?

15)  New England Revolution, Eastern Conference (3-5-4) 13 points DOWN

With the Chicago Fire, Vancouver Whitecaps and Sporting KC all getting draws this week, my bottom three don't change. Chicago and Vancouver both fire their coaches, but Sporting must feel OK, as they were on a five game losing streak.

16)  Chicago Fire, Eastern Conference (1-4-6) 9 points

17)  Vancouver Whitecaps, Western Conference (1-5-6) 9 points

18)  Sporting Kansas City, Eastern Conference (1-6-2) 5 points

After Further Review-Eric Brunner Was Offside, The Crew Got Screwed!

Looks like Portland's Eric Brunner (#5) was offside when the ball was crossed to him, and the assistant referee at the top of the screen was completely out of position to make the call. Brunner scored the only goal of the game off this cross in The Crew's 1-0 loss to Portland this past Saturday, 5/21/11.

Watch the video, and note there is no Crew player at the far post.

It should have been waived off!

The Western Conference Rules! Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week 10, 5/23/11

The Los Angeles Galaxy Take Over The Top Spot This Week!

It has become very clear that the teams in the Western Conference are currently the class of the MLS, holding the top seven spots in this week's rankings.

My Week 10 Major League Soccer Power Rankings (wins-losses-draws) UP or DOWN from last week:

1)   LA Galaxy, Western Conference (6-2-5) 23 points UP
An away win (kind of, it was in the Home Depot Center) against local rival Chivas USA and some weak results by the three teams ranked ahead of the Galaxy last week earn them this week's top spot.

2)   FC Dallas, Western Conference (5-3-3) 18 points DOWN
FC Dallas is still on a pretty good run, earning them the number 2 spot this week.

3)   Portland Timbers, Western Conference (5-3-2) 17 points UP
Undefeated at home!

4)   Seattle Sounders FC, Western Conference (4-3-5) 17 points UP
Steady Seattle continues to get the job done with a win against Sporting KC.

5)   Real Salt Lake, Western Conference (5-1-2) 17 points DOWN

6)   Chivas USA, Western Conference (3-4-3) 12 points DOWN
Chivas took a tough loss this week against the Galaxy.

7)   Colorado Rapids, Western Conference (4-3-4) 16 points UP
The Rapids aren't winning a lot of games, but they aren't losing either.

8)   New York Red Bulls, Eastern Conference (4-2-4) 16 points DOWN

9)   Philadelphia Union, Eastern Conference (5-3-2) 17 points UP
With a win against Chicago, The Union take over the top spot in the Eastern Conference.

10) New England Revolution, Eastern Conference (3-4-4) 13 points DOWN
Another team victimized by the three time zone curse, losing to the Earthquakes this week.

11) San Jose Earthquakes, Western Conference (3-4-3) 12 points UP
Two wins in a row earn the Earthquakes the biggest jump in this week's rankings.

12) Columbus Crew, Eastern Conference (3-3-4) 13 points DOWN
And two West coast losses in a row earn The Crew the biggest drop in this week's rankings.

13) Toronto FC, Eastern Conference (2-4-6) 12 points DOWN

14) Houston Dynamo, Eastern Conference (3-3-5) 14 points DOWN
Allowed the New York Red Bulls an extra-time equalizer to steal a point from them at home.

15) D.C. United, Eastern Conference (3-4-3) 12 points DOWN

With the Chicago Fire and Sporting KC losing, and Vancouver idle this past week, the bottom three stay the same in this week's rankings.

16) Chicago Fire, Eastern Conference (1-4-5) 8 points

17) Vancouver Whitecaps, Western Conference (1-5-5) 8 points

18) Sporting Kansas City, Eastern Conference (1-6-1) 4 points

Real Salt Lake Still on Top! Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week 8, 5/9/11

For the 4th Straight Week, Real Salt Lake is #1!

My Week 8 Major League Soccer Power Rankings (wins-losses-draws) UP or DOWN from last week:

1)   Real Salt Lake, Western Conference (5-1-0) 15 points

Real Salt Lake stays on track with a win against Chivas USA. Will they be able to maintain this pace following the injury to Javier Morales?

2)   Portland Timbers, Western Conference (4-3-1) 13 points UP

4 wins in their last 5 matches, the only team as hot as Portland is Real Salt Lake. Amazing that an expansion team is having this much success. Portland makes the biggest leap in this week's rankings, a deserving #2.

3)   New York Red Bulls, Eastern Conference (4-1-3) 15 points

A well played draw in Los Angeles against the Galaxy keeps New York at #3.

4)   LA Galaxy, Western Conference (4-2-4) 16 points UP

The draw with the New York Red Bulls showed that the Galaxy is a top 5 team. If only Landon Donovan could have hit the ball a fraction harder on that open net...

5)   FC Dallas, Western Conference (3-3-2) 11 points UP

An away draw this week, and Dallas continues to rise up the rankings.

6)   Columbus Crew, Eastern Conference (3-1-4) 13 points DOWN

This week's 1-1 draw with Seattle was the Crew's 7th straight match without a loss.

7)   Seattle Sounders FC, Western Conference (3-3-4) 13 points DOWN

A loss and a draw on the road this week drops Seattle out of the top 5.

8)   Chivas USA, Western Conference (2-3-3) 9 points UP

9)   Philadelphia Union, Eastern Conference (4-2-1) 13 points DOWN
Hot early in the year, this week they ran into a buzzsaw, or should I say chainsaw, in Portland.

10) D.C. United, Eastern Conference (3-4-2) 11 points UP
A win and a draw makes for a very good week!

11) Houston Dynamo, Eastern Conference (3-3-3) 12 points DOWN

A home loss against the Rapids, and an away loss versus a weak Toronto FC earns the Dynamo the biggest drop in this week's rankings. 

12) Colorado Rapids, Western Conference (4-3-2) 14 points DOWN

The Rapids could be on the verge of breaking out of the bottom half of the rankings.

13) Toronto FC, Eastern Conference (2-3-4) 10 points UP

14) New England Revolution, Eastern Conference (2-3-4) 10 points DOWN

The Chicago Fire and Vancouver Whitecaps played to a 0-0 draw this week, and with San Jose and Sporting KC being idle, the bottom 4 in the rankings stay the same as last week.

15) Chicago Fire, Eastern Conference (1-3-4) 7 points

16) Vancouver Whitecaps, Western Conference (1-4-4) 7 points

17) San Jose Earthquakes, Western Conference (1-4-2) 5 points

18) Sporting Kansas City, Eastern Conference (1-4-1) 4 points

Major League Soccer Power Rankings, Week 5, 4/18/11

Major League Soccer has just finished Matchweek 5, with all but two of the teams having played at least five matches. Real Salt Lake and Sporting KC have played 4 matches.

Time for me to introduce my MLS Power Rankings. At this point in the season, I think I have a pretty good idea of how the league is sorting out, so I'm going to share my thoughts on a weekly basis. My rankings combine overall season performance along with current form, so it's my attempt to show the 18 teams as I currently see them.

Real Salt Lake #1, Week 5

Week 5 Power Rankings (wins-losses-draws):

1)   Real Salt Lake, Western Conference (4-0-0) 12 points
2)   Philadelphia Union, Eastern Conference (3-1-1) 10 points
3)   LA Galaxy, Western Conference (3-1-3) 12 points
4)   Colorado Rapids, Western Conference (3-2-0) 9 points
5)   Houston Dynamo, Eastern Conference (2-1-2) 8 points
6)   Columbus Crew, Eastern Conference (2-1-2) 8 points
7)   New York Red Bulls, Eastern Conference (2-1-2) 8 points
8)   Portland Timbers, Western Conference (2-2-1) 7 points
9)   D.C. United, Eastern Conference (2-2-1) 7 points
10) Seattle Sounders FC, Western Conference (1-2-3) 6 points
11) Toronto FC, Eastern Conference (1-2-3) 6 points
12) New England Revolution, Eastern Conference (1-2-3) 6 points
13) San Jose Earthquakes, Western Conference (1-2-2) 5 points
14) FC Dallas, Western Conference (1-3-1) 4 points
15) Sporting Kansas City, Eastern Conference (1-2-1) 4 points
16) Chicago Fire, Eastern Conference (1-3-1) 4 points
17) Vancouver Whitecaps, Western Conference (1-2-3) 6 points
18) Chivas USA, Western Conference (0-2-3) 3 points

A few comments:

- Real Salt Lake continues to dominate.
- The Portland Timbers are the biggest early season surprise. Two big victories this week earned them the 8th spot in my rankings.
-Sporting KC is the biggest early season disappointment. Their first home game can't come soon enough.
-The Chicago Fire started the season well, but have since gone into a 3 game tailspin.

Remember, the CONCACAF Champions League Finals begin this Wednesday, April 20th. The game is on Fox Soccer Channel, 8pm MST, 10pm EST. On Twitter, use the #MLS4RSL hashtag and support Real Salt Lake!

Mountain Time

The Best Soccer Club Atmosphere I Have Ever Seen in the U.S.-Portland Timbers of the MLS!

Last night (April 14, 2011) one of the two new expansion clubs in Major League Soccer, the Portland Timbers, had their home debut. They opened their new/renovated stadium, Jeld-Wen Field. The game was broadcast on ESPN2 at 11pm EST, so I had to DVR it. But I did make sure to catch the opening couple of minutes.

The Timbers took a very prudent approach to their home stadium. The field originally opened in 1926 and has been used by the local minor league baseball team, the Portland Beavers, and the Portland State Football team.

The stadium also has soccer tradition. It was the home of the old NASL (North American Soccer League) Portland Timbers from 1975-1982 and hosted the NASL Championship Game between the New York Cosmos and Seattle Sounders in 1977. That game was historic as it was Pele's final professional match.

After a $31 million dollar renovation, the field opened last night with the Portland Timbers hosting the Chicago Fire. I still have to watch the game on the DVR, but the Timbers won 4-2, sending their fans (18,627 to be exact) including their supporters group, the Timbers Army, home very happy.

The field looked great on TV. Possibly the best atmosphere I have ever seen for a US based soccer club, rivaling the best of the European clubs. The Timbers Army was very well organized, singing and chanting in unison.

The best part of last night's match for me was the decision that Portland Timbers' management made regarding the National Anthem. Rather than bringing in a celebrity to sing the Star-Spangled Banner, the decision was made to have the Timbers Army sing it. A brilliant move, and possibly the best rendition of the Star-Spangled Banner I have ever heard. Check it out!

ADDED:I forgot to mention that the Portland Timbers may have started the best tradition in the MLS when celebrating a home goal. After every goal, the Timbers mascot, Timber Joey, brings out his chain saw and cuts a slice off of a huge log.

After the game the goal scorer is presented with the slice to commemorate his goal!

Steve Sirk, who has contributed articles for the Columbus Crew's website, http://www.thecrew.com/ had a great tweet last night about the tradition:

stevesirk Steve Sirk 

How far MLS has come, part 22567...1996: "Sorry, drums can be used as weapons. No entry!" 2011: "Fully functional chain saw? No problem!"

Here is Timber Joey after the first goal last night:

Portland Timbers Celebrate Their Big Win! (Craig Mitchelldyer, www.portlandtimbers.com)